Hybrid Warfare and Chokepoints: Baltic Sea Security at Risk
The Baltic Sea power cable Estlink 2 that runs between Finland and Estonia was damaged last week, along with multiple data cables. This latest incident highlights the Baltic’s sea role as a strategic chokepoint. Geopolitically Correct looks at the consequences for European security and the implications for governments and businesses.
Here's what you'll discover:
Chokepoints and Critical Infrastructure Risks
Security and Commercial Impacts
Undersea Threats: Lessons from History
Stay ahead with concise, actionable insights for policymakers and business leaders.
Chokepoints and Critical Infrastructure Risks
Last week, the Estlink 2 undersea power cable in the Baltic Sea was severed, reportedly by a tanker with alleged links to Russia. This incident follows damage to two telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea region in November 2024.
FOR GOVERNMENTS. Chokepoints, such as the Baltic Sea, the Suez Canal, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, are strategically vital passages for global trade. They are typically located in straits or canals with a high volume of traffic and serve as critical waterways to trade. Undersea cables in these high-traffic areas are particularly vulnerable due to the difficulty in monitoring and protecting such infrastructure. European states, especially those bordering the Baltic Sea, need to implement better control systems and cooperation to detect early signs of possible further attempts to disrupt critical infrastructure.
FOR BUSINESS. The Baltic Sea’s strategic importance as a gateway for trade and energy infrastructure cannot be overstated. Connected to the North Sea via the Danish Straits, the region serves as a critical water route. However, heightened tensions between Russia and NATO countries, coupled with the ongoing war in Ukraine, have turned the Baltic Sea into a spot for geopolitical tensions. The recent damage to the power cable between Estonia and Finland shows the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to hybrid warfare and highlights the challenges to energy security in these strategic chokepoints. Further disruptions could have effects on regional economies and supply chains. Companies operating in or dependent on this region should monitor developments closely and assess the risks to their operations.
Security and Commercial Impacts
The Russian-linked merchant ship, suspected of sabotaging critical underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, may have also been engaged in espionage activities. This highlights the need to increase maritime infrastructure defenses.
FOR GOVERNMENTS. The vessel in question, the Eagle S, a tanker linked to Russia's shadow fleet, was quickly intercepted by Finnish authorities after allegedly damaging the Estlink 2 electricity cable. However, Finnish authorities faced a race against time, as further possible sabotage by the Eagle S could have severed the nearby Estlink 1 cable. This shows the need for countries neighbouring the Baltic Sea to improve coodination and action to preven furture disruption to critical infrastructure. Additionally, European governments must address existing loopholes in sanctions regimes and consider new measures to counter the covert operations of these vessels.
FOR BUSINESS. The Eagle S, now in Finnish custody, was reportedly equipped with advanced transmission and surveillance equipment, effectively functioning as a “spy ship” for Russia. Therefore, beyond the immediate risk to undersea cables, such vessels pose broader threats to critical infrastructure. In response to the recent incident the NATO General Secertary, Mark Rutte said that NATO will bolster its military presence in the Baltic Sea.
Undersea Threats: Lessons from History
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union engaged in activities to surveil NATO’s undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, though no confirmed attacks on subsea cables occurred. Soviet operations focused on intelligence gathering and preparing for potential conflicts.
FOR GOVERNMENTS. The targeting of undersea infrastructure is not new, particularly during periods of heightened geopolitical tension. A historical example is the US Operation Ivy Bells, where Americans tapped Soviet undersea cables in the Sea of Okhotsk for espionage purposes. While not sabotage, the incident illustrates the strategic importance of subsea systems. And now in recent months, the Baltic Sea is in focus for espionage and sabotage acts. In September 2022, three out of four pipelines of Nord Stream 1 and 2 were severely damaged. In mid-November 2024, an undersea cable connecting Sweden and Lithuania was cut, alongside the only communications cable linking Finland with Germany. These attacks are suspected to have been carried out by the Chinese vessel Yi Peng. Despite Swedish authorities halting the ship for inspection, Chinese officials blocked European prosecutors from boarding.
FOR BUSINESS. The targeting of undersea cables is a reminder of the wider risks to global connectivity and trade. The Estlink 2 attack is not only a potential military provocation by Russia against NATO but also a demonstration of hybrid warfare tactics. The refusal of Chinese authorities to allow European prosecutor to investigate the Chinese ship raises the question of how similar cases will be handled in the future. In response, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys suggested that: “China's unwillingness to cooperate on the undersea incident investigations in the Baltic Sea cannot be allowed to set a precedent in Europe — or anywhere else. (…) it will have to be countered by new navigation rules in EU waters to address vulnerabilities.” Finland’s quick response to the Estlink 2 sabotage by boarding the ship with armed police shows that such action might be needed to deter future incidents. Businesses operating in, or dependent on, the Baltic region need to assess their exposure to risks arising from these geopolitical tensions. Companies in the logistics, energy and data communications sectors are particularly vulnerable to disruption.
Weekly Thought Provoker
Want to hear my take? Get the analysis by subscribing to Geopolitically Correct on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or your preferred platform.
In Review
Here’s what we covered last week:
America First: US Policy’s Impact on Europe
Trump’s Promise: A Path to Peace in Ukraine?
Trade Agenda: Opportunities and Risks
Subscribe now for concise, actionable insights into European geopolitics every week.